The set-up: I've been saying for some time now that while the consensus seems to be that the MVP race is between OKC's Russell Westbrook and Houston's James Harden, that San Antonio Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard may be more deserving. MVP voting is already in, so that fact that Leonard has been the best player in the Western Conference playoffs so far, will have no effect. However, Leonard just may be the key to which team wins the second round series between the third-seeded Rockets and the second-seeded Spurs. The Rockets downed the Thunder 4-1 but OKC, as everyone found out (actually, most already knew), is no more than a "one-man team." Leonard's supporting cast is not up to past San Antonio teams but the Spurs offer the Rockets a much greater challenge. The Spurs let a 2-0 lead slip away against Memphis but righted the ship with a 13-point Game 5 win at home and a seven-point road in in Memphis in Game 6 last Thursday, to close out the Grizzlies in six games, which gave them a few days of much-needed rest before the start of this series.

Houston: Harden averaged 33.2-6.4-7.0 in Houston five-game series win over OKC five-game but went just 13-of-41 (31.7%) from the floor over the final two contests while dealing with an ankle injury. The good news is that the Rockets haven't played since last Tuesday. Harden averaged put up 29.8-9.0-11.8 in four regular-season meetings with Houston, although the Spurs won three of the four matchups.The Rockets have excellent depth in the backcourt, as four of the team's five double digits scorers against OKC were guards. Williams was second in scoring (18.8) plus Gordon (13.6) and Beverley (11.6) were fourth and fifth, respectively. The frontcourt star against OKC was Nene, who came off the bench to average 13.6 & 6.6 in just 22 minutes! A concern could be that while the Rockets led the NBA in three-point attempts (40.3 per game) during the season, they shot just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc in the first round.

San Antonio: Leonard averaged 31.2 points on 54.8 percent shooting, six rebounds and two steals in the six-game win in the first round and consistently attacked the basket against Memphis, leading to a 59-of-61 effort from the free-throw line. "Obviously, Kawhi Leonard is in my opinion the best player in the league right now," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "He's the best two-way player, and does it all with such class. It's impressive." I agree with "Pop." Tony Parker turned back the clock against Memphis, averaging 16.3 PPG in the series, despite a scoreless Game 2 (he shot 53.3%). He exploded for 27 in the Game 6 clincher and Pop notes, "Tony wasn't just effective today," he told reporters after Game 6. "He's done a masterful job of getting in shape down the stretch of the season and playing his best basketball during this playoff -- finding people, scoring himself, working hard defensively. He had a magnificent playoff."

The pick: However, I've cautioned this playoff season that the Spurs are not quite the talented and very deep team of past editions. Leonard's 'the bomb' but too often, he's asked to carry too much of the load. As noted already, Harden gets outstanding help from his backcourt mates and this year's Houston team has the talent to make the Spurs 'sweat' in this series. Why not right here in Game 1? Take the points and make Houston a 10* play.