The set-up: Two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson guided the Senators to six-game series victories over Boston and the New York Rangers despite playing with two hairline fractures in his left heel. He raised his team-high point total to 13 (two goals, 11 assists) by recording game-winning goals in the series opener and clincher against New York. The Senators are making their first trip to the conference finals since 2007 and just their third trip in franchise history. Awaiting them for Game 1 of this series in Pittsburgh are the Penguins. Pittsburgh is the defending champs and the Penguins are looking to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98 to repeat as champions. Pittsburgh needed just five games to dispatch Columbus in the first round but after taking a 3-1 lead over Washington, the Penguins were extended to a seventh game before taking out the Presidents' Trophy-winning Caps (again!) with a 2-0 Game 7 victory. Evgeni Malkin (NHL-leading 18 points in the playoffs) and rookie Jake Guentzel (league-best nine goals), have led the way.

Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher has 'played the underdog card' in each of his team's first two series and while that assessment could have been debated against the Bruins and Rangers, Boucher's Senators are clearly the underdog in this series. Karlsson is the team leader in points, as well as being the 'heart' of this team, but note that Jean-Gabriel Pageau recorded six of his team-leading seven goals versus the Rangers on the heels of being limited to only 12 goals on the season and one in the first-round series against the Bruins. Craig Anderson has been publicly shredded for his questionable puck-handling decisions in these playoffs but he owns a respectable 2.49 GAA and .914 save percentage.

Pittsburgh: The Penguins were out-played and out-shot by the Caps for most of the series but in the end, came out as the winner. A big reason was the play of Marc-Andre Fleury, who saved his best for Game 7 at Washington, recording a 29-save shutout. He's hasn't put up Rinne-like numbers this postseason but he's got a 2.55 goals-against average and .927 save percentage (.927). Head coach Mike Sullivan has stated that Fleury "deserves the opportunity to play" even though regular-season starter Matt Murray has returned to health. "If we traded (Fleury), we wouldn't be in this room right now," Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford said of the veteran, who was the subject of trade rumors throughout the season. "You'd be in another city. If not for our goalie, we wouldn't have won that series (against Washington)."

The pick: The Penguins have won three of four postseason meetings with the Senators but note that this season, Ottawa captured two of the three meetings against Pittsburgh, with Karlsson erupting for seven points (one goal, six assists) in those three games. Yes, Pittsburgh has enjoyed comfortable wins by two or more goals on five occasions this postseason but Ottawa has seen nine of its 12 playoff games decided by just one goal, including the first eight the Senators played. Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Senators an 8* play.