The set-up: The Cleveland Indians snapped a three-game slide with an 8-3 win on Sunday and avoided a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins. The Indians finally found their offense, after scoring just one run in dropping the first two games of that series. The Tampa Bay Rays had scored a modest eight runs in losing two of their previous three but used a seven-run ninth inning on Sunday to pull away for an 11-2 win over the Red Sox. The Indians are 19-17 to open the current season while the Rays are 19-21, as the two teams meet in Cleveland for the opener of a three-game series on Monday.

The pitching matchup: Chris Archer (3-1 & 3.04 ERA) will start for the Rays and the Indians will send Carlos Carrasco (4-2 & 1.86 ERA) to the mound. Archer has rebounded from an awful 2016 season and enters this contest having posted a quality start in each of his last three starts. He is coming off the best of the bunch after scattering five hits across eight scoreless innings while striking out 11 without a walk in a 12-1 win over Kansas City on Wednesday. The Rays are 5-3 (plus-$135) in Archer's eight starts in 2017, after going 10-23 and minus-$1553 last year. However, Archer is still looking for his first career win against Cleveland and enters Monday 0-5 with a 5.14 ERA in five career starts against the Indians. Carrasco has pitched very well in 2017 and will be looking for his third straight win and seventh consecutive quality start after striking out seven without walking a batter in seven scoreless innings at Toronto on Tuesday. Carrasco allowed one run and struck out eight in eight innings to earn a win in his lone start against Tampa Bay last season, giving him a 3-3 career record against the rays, while posting a 2.57 ERA.

The pick: No way I'll back Archer with his career record against the Indians (see above), especially with Carrasco looking so solid. Yes, the Indians are a modest 7-8 at home so far in 2017 but they went 53-28 at home last season. Make Cleveland an 8* play.