The set-up: Atlanta won 10-6 last night at Toronto in the first of this four-game, home-and-home IL series between the Braves and Blue Jays. The Braves are hoping their 10-6 win is something to build on (Atlanta won for the third time in four games) while the Blue Jays want to dismiss the loss as an aberration to be quickly forgotten (Toronto lost for only the second time in its past nine games). The teams play against tonight in Toronto, then move to Atlanta for games Wednesday and Thursday.

The pitching matchup: Jaime Garcia (1-2 & 4.33 ERA) takes the hill for the Braves and Marco Estrada (2-2 & 3.12 ERA) for the Blue Jays. Garcia's had control issues lately (five walks in each of his last two starts) but he's kept Atlanta in his starts this season, with four of the six being decided by one or two runs (Braves are 3-3 in his starts). He gave up four runs on six hits over six innings in losing at the Astros 4-2 last Wednesday but that snapped a string of three consecutive starts with two runs or less allowed. Garcia has posted a 1.80 ERA while going 2-1 in three career starts against Toronto. Estrada has helped the Blue Jays recover from a rotten start to the season (Jays lost nine of 11 to begin 2017!), allowing two ERs or less in five of his past six starts (team is 4-2). He won for the second time in three starts in May on Thursday against Seattle, striking out eight while surrendering two runs on four hits in six innings. He's pitched well against Atlanta in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in 11 career appearances (five starts).

The pick: Both teams are off to slow starts in 2017 but the Braves are a team coming off a 93-loss season in 2016, while the Blue Jays have won 89 and 93 games the last two years, reaching the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016. Toronto ha the edge here with Estrada, who has limited opposing hitters to a .227 batting average in 2017. Make Toronto an 8* play.