The set-up: The 17-23 Kansas City Royals will be in Minnesota tonight for the opener of a three-game series with the 20-17 Twins. This series opens a 10-game road trip for the Royals, who are winless in five games against the Twins this season. Minnesota halted a three-game slide with a 2-0 victory over Colorado in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader but the Twins have scored just 14 runs in their last six contests.

The pitching matchup: Nate Karns (2-2 & 4.46 ERA) will starts for KC and Hector Santiago (4-2 & 3.80 ERA) for Minnesota. Karns has been superb over his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 17 1/3 innings. However, while he's had just three career appearances against the Twins (two starts), the results have been a disaster. He has a 17.55 ERA and 3.00 WHIP, while lasting only 6 2/3 innings! Santiago is coming off his worst outing of the season, as he gave up six runs on seven hits in just 2 2/3 innings while losing 8-3 at Cleveland last Sunday. However, he had won his previous three decisions and also defeated the Royals on April 5, when he gave up one run and four hits over five innings. Santiago is 3-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 16 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 4-6) versus Kansas City.

The pick: The Twins have outscored the Royals 34-14 this year, so the team's recent lack of scoring should turn around here. Surely, Karns' woeful numbers against the Twins will give Minnesota confidence, as will the fact that KC has allowed 5.41 RPG on the road in 2017. Minnesota may be three games over .500 on the season (currently lead the AL Central) but the Twins are a modest 9-12 at home, where they've allowed 5.10 RPG. Make the Over a 10* play.