The set-up; The defending champion Cubs won 6-1 last night over the Pirates, reaching .500 (43-43) for the 20th time this season. However, Chicago hasn't won consecutive games since taking three straight from June 18-20. The Cubs have two games left before the break and currently have fallen 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central, as the Brewers have won five in a row. Friday's loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Pirates, who at 40-47, sit eight games back in the NL Central plus are even further back in the wild card standings (10 games behind the second wild card spot).

The pitching matchup: Ivan Nova (8-6 & 3.24 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh and Jake Arrieta (8-6 & 4.33 ERA) for Chicago. Nova was rolling with seven quality starts in an eight-game stretch from May 9 through June 17 but has now failed to a record quality start in any of his last three (1-2 with a 5.00 ERA). Nova beat the Cubs 4-3 on June 17 in Pittsburgh, limiting them to three runs on six hits in seven innings, in what is his lone career start against the Cubs. Arrieta turned in his best outing of the season Sunday at Cincinnati, holding the Reds to one hits over seven scoreless innings in a 6-2 win. The question is whether he can do it again, as he's had consecutive quality starts only twice this season. Arrieta went 9-1 with a 1.46 ERA in his first 12 outings against the Pirates but he's 0-3 in his last five with a 7.81 ERA.

The pick: This is the best Nova has pitched since he went 10-3 in 17 starts in 2012 with the New York Yankees, prior to that year's All Star break. Still, I'm not quite sold. Yes, it's been a tough first half for Arrieta, but he's pitched solidly at Wrigley in 2017, going 3-0 (team is 4-1) in a modest five starts in the "Friendly Confines." Make the Cubs an 8* play.