The set-up: The Brewers went 73-89 in 22016, finishing 30 1/2 games back of the eventual World Series-winning Cubs. However, the Brewers open the second half of the 2017 season at ,50-41, giving them a 5 1/2 game lead on the Cubs in the NL Central. The Phillies finished just two games worse than the Brewers last season (71--91) but unlike Milwaukee, Philadelphia gets back on the field owning MLB's worst record (29-58), which puts them on pace to win only 54 games. Philadelphia also owns the second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2287), besting only the hard-to-explain SF Giants.

The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (2-4 & 4.73 ERA) will get the nod for the Phillies and Zach Davies (10-4 & 4.90 ERA) for the Brewers. Pivetta continues to struggle allowing HRs, giving up 12 in his 11 starts to begin his MLB career. The Phiilies are 3-8 in all of his starsts, including 2-5 on the road where his ERA is 5.56 and his WHIP is 1.76. This marks his first career start against the Brewers. Davies won his third straight start and improved to 5-1 in his last seven outings on July 6, allowing just two runs on five hits in six innings of an 11-2 rout of the Chicago Cubs. "Personally, (10 wins is) something that kind of makes you happy," the 24-year-old told reporters. "There are personal goals that you want to hit, but at the same time, we want to play in October." Davies struggled in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, taking the loss after permitting four runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-2 setback on April 22, 2016.

The pick: The Brewers aren't just leading the NL Central, they are also one of MLB's best money-making teams in 2017, checking in at plus-$1762 (third-best among all teams). Davies has been a HUGE surprise, with Milwaukee going 12-6 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$787, which ranks fifth among all starters in 2017. The Phillies are 13-33 on the road and open the second half averaging 3.82 RPG, ranking 29th of 30 teams. Make the Brewers an 8*.