PREMIUM
3-Game MLB SWEEPER PASS
(MLB) Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee,
Total: 8.50 | -114.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 8.50 | -114.00 Under
Result: Loss
The set-up: The Brewers went just 73-89 in 2016, finishing 30 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. However, Milwaukee has been one of 2017's biggest surprises in the first half of the season, coming out of the All Star break with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs and finding themselves atop the division. The All-Star break did nothing to slow down the Brewers' mojo, as they maintained their lead over the Cubs (Chicago won 9-8 on Friday) by winning 9-6 at home last night over MLB-worst Philadelphia Phillies. An eight-run second inning (powered by Ryan Braun's sixth career grand slam), was all Milwaukee needed to make it seven wins in its last eight games. Philadelphia remains mired in the NL East basement, as well as owning MLB's worst overall record (29-59), its worst road record (13-34) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2383).
The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.59 ERA) starts for the Phillies and Jimmy Nelson (8-4 & 3.30 ERA) for the Brewers. Nola has been Philly's best pitcher since the beginning of June but had his three-start winning streak snapped last time out as he suffered a hard-luck loss to San Diego on July 8, after allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. He has given up a total of only five runs and recorded 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings (1.53 ERA) over his last four starts and has yielded more than three runs just once in his last seven outings! Nola was superb in his two previous career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one run and striking out 16 over 13 innings while notching a pair of victories (0.69 ERA). Nelson comes into this contest having won each of his last three starts, including a road outing against the New York Yankees on Sunday in which he gave up three runs over five innings. Nelson has posted a 1-1 record and 6.89 ERA in three career outings against Philadelphia (team is 1-2).
The pick: The Brewers are playing with supreme confidence (at least for now) and in Nelson, Milwaukee has a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 37 innings) over his last five Miller Park starts. His lone no-decision in that span came in a game in which Nelson tossed eight scoreless innings (11-0 KW ratio) but Milwaukee would lose 2-1 in 12 innings (Nelson's mound opponent was some guy named Kershaw). At first blush this looks like an under but is either pitcher really as good as he has looked lately? I think not. Nola's career ERA is 4.08, Nelson's is 4.16 plus Philly's bullpen ERA is 4.54 and Milwaukee's 4.04. Make the Over an 8* play.
The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.59 ERA) starts for the Phillies and Jimmy Nelson (8-4 & 3.30 ERA) for the Brewers. Nola has been Philly's best pitcher since the beginning of June but had his three-start winning streak snapped last time out as he suffered a hard-luck loss to San Diego on July 8, after allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. He has given up a total of only five runs and recorded 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings (1.53 ERA) over his last four starts and has yielded more than three runs just once in his last seven outings! Nola was superb in his two previous career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one run and striking out 16 over 13 innings while notching a pair of victories (0.69 ERA). Nelson comes into this contest having won each of his last three starts, including a road outing against the New York Yankees on Sunday in which he gave up three runs over five innings. Nelson has posted a 1-1 record and 6.89 ERA in three career outings against Philadelphia (team is 1-2).
The pick: The Brewers are playing with supreme confidence (at least for now) and in Nelson, Milwaukee has a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 37 innings) over his last five Miller Park starts. His lone no-decision in that span came in a game in which Nelson tossed eight scoreless innings (11-0 KW ratio) but Milwaukee would lose 2-1 in 12 innings (Nelson's mound opponent was some guy named Kershaw). At first blush this looks like an under but is either pitcher really as good as he has looked lately? I think not. Nola's career ERA is 4.08, Nelson's is 4.16 plus Philly's bullpen ERA is 4.54 and Milwaukee's 4.04. Make the Over an 8* play.
