The set-up: The Phillies lost 6-5 (10 inn.) on Monday but Nick Williams' two-run HR led the way to a 5-2 win in Miami last night. The MLB-worst Phillies (31-61) now have a chance to take this three-game series with a win this afternoon against the Marlins in teh rubber match of the series. Miami has dropped four of its last five to fall to 42-50, 14 1/2 games back of the first-place Nats in the NL East. The Marlins' wild card hopes aren't much brighter, as they are 11 games out of the final wild card spot with four teams ahead of them.

The pitching matchup: Rookie Nick Pivetta (2-5 & 5.63 ERA) gets the start for Philly and Dan Straily (7-4 & 3.32 ERA) for Miami. Pivetta surrendered a season-high nine runs on seven hits in five innings of a 9-6 setback at Milwaukee on July 14, in his last outing. "This is his first go-round in the big leagues," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin told reporters. "He's shown us a lot of promise and I like what he's been doing. (That performance) wasn't his best." I'm not sure just what "promise" Mackanins is referring to, as the Phillies are 3-9 in Pivetta's 2017 starts. This marks his first career encounter versus Miami. Straily has dominated Philadelphia to the tune of a 2-0 mark with an 0.77 ERA in two career starts against them. Straily struck out 10 and allowed one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of a 10-2 rout versus the Phillies back on May 31. Straily hasn't lost since June 5 and is 3-0 with five no-decisions over his last seven starts (Marlins are 5-2 in that stretch).

The pick: Straily has been Miami's most consistent starter this year, as the Marlins are 11-8 in his 19 starts. That may not seem like a big deal at first glance but that's a winning percentage of .579 and when someone else gets the start for Miami in 2017, the team is playing .425 baseball (31-42)! As noted above, the Phillies are 3-9 when Pivetta starts and that includes a 2-6 on the road where Pivetta owns a 6.92 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Make the Marlins an 8* play .