The set-up: Everyone is talking about the the Cubs, as the defending champs have returned from the break to win five in a row, closing within 2 1/2 games of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. However, right now, the Brewers are tasked with worrying about the Pirates, who after last night's 4-3 win over Milwaukee have won nine of 11 to draw within five games of the Brewers.

The pitching matchup: Zach Davies (11-4 & 5.08 ERA) will get the nod for Milwaukee in this third game of a four-game set. He'll be opposed by the Pirates' Gerrit Cole (7-7 & 4.35 ERA). Despite his plus-5.00 ERA, the Brewers are 13-6 in Davies' starts, giving him the third-best moneyline mark among starters in 2017 (plus-$887). He's a perfect 5-0 on the road, with Milwaukee going 7-2 in his nine road starts. Cole did not factor in the decision last time out versus St. Louis but he recorded his fifth quality start in six outings with six innings of two-run ball. He is 4-1 over that six-start stretch with the Pirates going 5-1.

The pick: The Brewers have been winning behind Davies but his 5.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and .291 BAA tell a different story. He last faced the Pirates on June 20, giving up six runs (five earned) and five walks over 5 1/3 innings of a 7-3 loss. That leaves him with a 10.29 ERA in five career starts vs. the Pirates. As noted above, Cole has delivered five quality starts in his last six (Pittsburgh is 5-1). He was awful in the one loss (allowed seven ERs vs. SF) but in the five wins, he's allowed just seven ERs over 32 innings (1.97 ERA). Pitching in front of team which has won nine of 11, make Cole and the Pirates a 10* play.