The set-up: The Cubs entered the All Star break at 43-45, 5 1/2 games back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. However, Chicago has won all six games since returning to the field (three-game sweeps at Baltimore and Atlanta) and now return to the "Friendly Confines" for a three-games series with the Cards before playing a home-and-home IL series with the crosstown White Sox, beginning with two games at Wrigley on Monday and Tuesday. Is this finally the hot streak the Cubs (and most baseball observers) expected would eventually come? St. Louis has lost two straight but is 13-9 its last 22 and is not out of things in the division just yet, sitting 4 1/2 games behind Milwaukee.

The pick: Carlos Martinez (6-8 & 3.36 ERA) takes the mound this afternoon at Wrigley and will be opposed by Jake Arrieta (9-7 & 4.17 ERA). Martinez has posted quality starts in five of his last seven outings, including last Sunday at Pittsburgh where he allowed two runs over seven innings in a no-decision. However, Martinez comes into this contest 0-3 with the Cards going 0-5 over his most recent five outing. He is 4-3 with a 4.16 ERA in 21 games (11 starts / Cards are 7-4) against the Cubs. Arrieta opened the second half with a strong outing at Baltimore on Saturday, holding his former team to two runs (one earned) over 6 2/3 innings. He has won three of his last five starts, posting a 2.97 ERA over that span. Like his team, Arrieta seems to be finding a groove. Arrieta is 8-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Cubs (teams are 10-6).

The pick: Martinez's season seems to be falling apart, while the exact opposite is true for Arrieta. Arrieta makes his 20th start of the season but only his seventh at home (he's 3-1 and the Cubs 4-2). However, Arrieta owns a 2.37 ERA all-time at Wrigley and that includes him going 6-1 with a 0.95 at Wrigley against the Cards in the regular season. Make the Cubs an 8* play.