The set-up: The Cubs are 13-3 since the All-Star break and are now 2 1/2 games up in the NL Central, as they get set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-game series at Wrigley. The D'backs have lost touch with the Dodgers (haven't all teams) but remain atop the NL wild card race, a half-game up on the Rockies and six games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line!' Chicago is among the hottest teams in the majors, thanks in large part to a rejuvenated starting rotation that has posted a 2.34 ERA and 11 quality starts in 16 games since the break. Meanwhile, Arizona has been stuck in neutral since the break, going 7-9.

The pitching matchup: Patrick Corbin (8-9 & 4.36 ERA) steps to the mound for Arizona, while Jon Lester (8-6 & 3.88 ERA) looks to follow up on three straight strong post-break starts. Corbin hasn't been bad either as of late, winning his last two starts and allowing two or fewer runs in his last four. Corbin is 3-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Cubs. Lester had an outstanding second half in 2016 and has been excellent in three starts since the All-Star break in 2017, winning all three while posting a 2.05 ERA. Lester is 2-0 with a 4.63 ERA in four starts against the Diamondbacks (teams are 2-2).

The pick: I sure don't want to try to fade the Cubs right now, especially with Lester on the hill. Arizona has looked mediocre since the break and on the season, is just 24-27 on the road, compared to 36-18 at home. Make the Cubs an 8* play.