The set-up: The Twins took the first of their three-game IL series with the D'backs last night, winning 10-3. Minnesota has come out of a slump post-break to win nine of 12 and move into a tie with the LA Angels for the second wild card in the American League. Meanwhile, while the Diamondbacks also hold down the same spot in the NL but with a four-game cushion over St. Louis. However, while Minnesota is streaking, Arizona is fighting a slump, having lost nine of its last 3.
The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (14-5 & 3.01 ERA) gets the ball on Saturday for Arizona and the Twins will counter with Jose Berrios (10-5 & 4.27 ERA). Greinke threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings while fanning nine to defeat Houston 2-0 his last time out. It was the fifth straight start in which he has finished at least six innings and left him one win shy of tying Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the lead in the National League. Greinke saw plenty of the Twins from his days in Kansas City and is just 4-8 with a 4.50 ERA over 10 career starts (teams are 5-14). Berrios is coming off poor starts in back-to-back outings, allowing five runs in five innings but escaped with a 6-5 win August 6. He then lasted just 3 1/3 innings while giving up six runs in a wild 12-11 Minnesota los to Detroit on Aug 12 (escaped with a no-decision). This is Berrios' second season (joined the rotation in mid-May of 2017) and after a strong start in which he went 7-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his first eight starts, he's gone 3-4 over his last nine (Twins are 3-6), with his ERA rising to 4.27 on the season. This is his first career start vs. Arizona.

The pick: The good news for Minnesota fans is that Berrios sports a 2.89 ERA in five career interleague starts but I don't believe that's a good enough reason to go against Greinke. Greinke is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA in his last nine starts (D'backs are 7-2), giving him MLB's fifth-best moneyline mark of plus-$912 (17-7 in all starts). Make Arizona an 8* play.