The set-up: The New York Mets came into Saturday's game with the Marlins on a 1-8 run at home in Citi Field, a span in which they had averaged a paltry 2.3 RPG. It was more of the same through five innings on Saturday for New York but then, a seven-run outburst in the sixth led to an 8-1 win. It was the most runs New York has scored at home since July 15 and it snapped the club's five-game overall losing streak overall. The Mets now set their sights on a series win when they host the Miami Marlins in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday afternoon. Miami lost for just the second time in eight games, as Giancarlo Stanton was walked three times while being kept in the ballpark for the third straight game, which follows his string of six straight contests with a HR.

The pitching matchup: Adam Conley (5-5 & 5.32 ERA) will start for Miami and Jacob deGrom (13-6 & 3.35 ERA) for New York. Conley has pitched much better since returning from the minors, going 3-2 with a 3.62 ERA in six starts (Marlins are 3-3). Conley had a 7,53 ERA in seven appearances in early May was he was sent to the minors. Conley actually opened the season with three straight games against the Mets (two starts and a relief appearance), posting a 3.00 ERA as the Marlins won both oh his starts (Conley took the loss in that relief stint). He does own an impressive 1.98 ERA in eight career matchups (six starts / team is 4-2) with New York. DeGrom gave up five runs over 7 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss in his 100th career start this past Tuesday at Yankee Stadium (Mets lost 5-4). DeGrom was 12-3 (3.30 ERA) heading into late July but has lost three of his last four starts. He's 4-3 with a 3.46 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Marlins (Mets are 5-6).

The pick: Not much on the Mets, who have traded six players since July 27, but deGrom owns an excellent 2.49 ERA at home and I'll back him here, in his 50th career home start. Make the Mets a 10* play.