The set-up: The Minnesota Twins blew a 3-1 lead last night at Chicago and the White Sox won 4-3 with a walk-off single in the ninth inning. The 65-61 Twins still own a half-game lead for the American League's second wild card spot, as they go for a series win Thursday night (teams have split the first four). The White Sox are 49-76, owners of the AL's worst record (only the 46-79 Phillies are worse in all of MLB!).

The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios (11-5 & 3.99 ERA) heads to the mound for the Twins and Derek Holland (6-13 & 6.28 ERA) for the White Sox. Berrios went 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA to start the season but then slipped to 3-4 with a 6.20 ERA in nine starts, including back-to-back ugly efforts on Aug. 6 (Texas) and Aug. 12 (Detroit) in which he allowed 11 ERs over just 8 1/3 innings. However, he regained his form against the Diamondbacks on Aug. 19, with seven scoreless innings in a 5-0 win over Arizona. He defeated the White Sox with eight strong innings back on June 21 at home and is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA through two career meetings with the division rivals. Holland was used in relief earlier in the series and was charged with three runs while retiring one batter, which left him with a 9.64 ERA against the Twins this year. He gave up seven runs and failed to complete three innings in each of his last two starts versus Minnesota (he's 2-6 with a 5.24 ERA against the Twins in 11 career starts / teams are 4-7). Holland owns just one quality start since the beginning of July, going 1-6 over nine starts (White Sox are 2-7).

The pick: Holland has hit rock bottom but the White Sox keep him in the rotation. Isn't he overdue? I'd say yes and I like Berrios' chances of easily keeping the White Sox in check. Make the Under an 8* play.