The set-up: The Washington Nationals will host the NY Mets in a Sunday doubleheader, with the second game being the Sunday night ESPN contest. The 77-50 Nats are cruising to a NL East crown (lead the division by 12 1/2 games), despite a long injury list. The 56-72 Mets are 21 1/2 games back of the Nats and have lost 10 of their 14 meetings with Washington this season.

The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (5-3 & 4.85 ERA) will start tonight's second game for New York, opposed by Washington's Tanner Roark (10-8 & 4.64 ERA). Lugo will be making his first appearance since August 11 and will attempt trying to snap a run of three consecutive poor starts. He failed to complete six innings in any of those three outings (he's 0-1 and the Mets 1-2), allowing 13 ERs over just 16 innings (7.31 ERA). He last saw Washington back on July 4 and that did not go well, as Lugo gave up six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss. That leaves him 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Roark comes in pitching fairly well, having allowed more than three ERs in just one of his last eight starts (he's 4-3 and Washington 4-4). Roark is making his second start of the season against the Mets and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings against the division rivals without factoring in the decision back on April 21. He's 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Mets (team is 7-3).

The pick: There is no reason to expect Lugo to be able to handle the Washington lineup and while Roark has been solid, I still see the Over as being the way to go. Make it an 8* play.