Rogers' EARLY TOTAL MASSACRE >> 187-129-7 MLB Run!
(MLB) Chi Cubs vs. Pittsburgh,
Total: 8.50 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs returned from the All Star break to go 14-3, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago did hit a small rough patch right after that but now, even with a Sunday 5-1 loss to the Braves, owns a run of 12 wins in their last 16 games. Chicago opens a four-game series Monday in Pittsburgh with an overall 32-16 since the break and a 3 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh made a little 'noise' for itself right after the All Star break by winning seven of eight (reaching 49-48) but since sitting at 58-58 after play on Aug. 11, has gone 7-14 to sit seven games under .500 at 65-72. Chicago's three-game sweep of Pittsburgh last week at Wrigley Field by a combined 27-5, effectively took the Pirates out of consideration for a shot at the postseason. The Pirates have fallen 10 1/2 games back in the NL Central and are 7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who own the final wild card spot.

The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (14-8 & 3.36 ERA) has easily been Chicago's pitching star since the break and opens this series, opposed by Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl (6-10 & 4.54 ERA). Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA since the break, with eight quality starts in nine outings. He takes the mound having won his last four decisions. Arrieta beat the Pirates 4-1 n his last outing (Sep 29), allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless frames. That leaves him 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 14-6). In contrast to Arrieta, Kuhl has lost two straight starts and three of his last four, failing to get through six innings in any of those four outings. Kuhl lost to the Cubs last time out (opposite Arrieta) and is 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in six career meetings (team is 2-4).

The pick: Kuhl and Arrieta opposed each other last Tuesday in Chicago, with each pitching five shutout innings before Chicago scored three in the six of a 4-1 Cubs win. Hard to ignore Arrieta's 1.59 ERA since the break but also note that Kuhl owns a 3.44 ERA over his past 12 starts. Make the Under an 8* play.