The set-up: The Cubs have opened the week with back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh, leaving the 'door wide open' for the Brewers, who traveled to Cincinnati to play the last-place Reds (NL Central) for a three-game series. However, it's been "Opportunity Lost" for the Brewers, who lost a 5-4 squeaker on Monday and then fell again last night, 9-3. Staff ace Zach Davies did his job (allowed two runs, one earned, over 5 2/3 innings) but four relievers allowed seven runs over 2 1/3 innings. Scooter Gennett's three-run HR (8th inning) was the decisive blow in Tuesday's victory for the 60-79 Reds, who will now go for a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon. Milwaukee enters this contest 3 1/2 games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card spot.

The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (6-8 & 4.77 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Luis Castillo (2-7 & 3.32 ERA) for Cincinnati. Garza was scheduled to pitch Sunday versus Washington but had that start skipped in the wake of another rocky outing, in which he gave up six runs (three earned) and walked five in 3 1/3 innings against St. Louis on Aug. 29. Garza has been OK at home (he's 5-3 with a 3.92 ERA and the team 7-5) but on the road, it's been another story. Garza is 1-5 over nine starts (team is 2-7) with a 5.81 ERA. Garza overcame five walks to beat the Reds with 5 1/3 innings of four-run ball (three earned) on Aug. 13 but is just 5-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 16 starts against Cincinnati all-time (teams are 8-8). Castillo owns a respectable 3.32 ERA on the season but his win-less drought reached six starts (he's 0-3 but the Reds are 3-3) in a no-decision at Pittsburgh this past Friday, when he lasted only four innings and gave up two runs on three hits. He was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 setback to Pittsburgh in his previous outing, tying his season high with nine strikeouts and yielding one run on three hits in seven innings. He also had nine strikeouts versus Milwaukee on June 28, his lone start against the Brewers (0-0 with a 3.17 ERA in game the Reds won).

The pick: Garza had that breakout season at Tampa Bay back in 2010 (15-10) but in seven-plus seasons since leaving the Rays, has won 10 games just once, pitching for the Cubs, Rangers and now Brewers. Since the beginning of 2015, his ERA is a bloated 5.05. As noted above, it's 5.81 in 2017 in nine road starts, so why trust Garza here? Meanwhile, in 14 starts in 2017, Castillo owns a 3.32 ERA, has allowed a modest 60 hits in 81 1/3 innings plus owns an opponents BA of .208. Make the Reds an 8*!