The set-up: The Washington Nationals come off a three-game sweep at Miami, putting them on the fast track to their fourth NL East title in six years (currently 18 games up on the Marlins). The Nats welcome Philadelphia for a four-game series beginning tonight, in what will be a season-high 10-game homestand. The Phillies have been going nowhere most of the season and remain owners of MLB's worst record at 53-86, 32 games back of the Nats.

The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (10-10 & 3.72 ERA) goes for Philadelphia and Tanner Roark (11-9 & 4.48 ERA) for Washington. Nola was shelled for the third time in four outings on Saturday, allowing six runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-9 loss at Miami. In losing three of those four outings, he has allowed 19 runs on 31 hits over 23 1/3 innings for a 7.33 ERA. Nola is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in eight career outings against the Nationals (team is 2-6). Roark comes in pitching well, having delivered quality starts in seven of his last nine outings. Roark owns a 4-4 record and 3.46 ERA in 13 career starts versus Philadelphia (team is 6-7).

The pick: The Phillies are a woeful 25-49 on the road and while Roark's career record is not all that impressive against Philadelphia, look a little closer. He was 3-0 with an 0.79 ERA in five starts against the Phillies in 2016 and while he has three no-decisions vs. Philly in 2017, he owns a 2.75 ERA in those games, holding the Phillies to a collective .194 batting average. Make Washington an 8* play.