The set-up: The Houston Astros owned the AL's best record for most of the season but Cleveland's 33-4 finish allowed the Indians to edge out the Astros for the AL's No. 1 seed, 102 wins to 101. That meant the Astros expected to have to get past the Indians in the ALCS with Cleveland owning the home field edge. However, a funny thing happened on the way to that expected showdown, as Cleveland collapsed after taking a 2-0 lead over the Yankees. New York's pitching silenced Cleveland's lineup, allowing just six runs in winning Games 3, 4 and 5. So instead of a Houston/Cleveland showdown, it's Yankees/Astros, as MLB's best offense (Astros led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238), face the only team to hit more HRs in the regular season than the Astros (Yanks hit 241).

The pitching matchup: Masahiro Tanaka(1-0 & 0.00 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Dallas Keuchel (1-0 & 1.59 ERA) for the Astros. Both were sharp in their lone ALDS outings but on the season, Tanaka was 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and Keuchel,14-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Tanaka pitched the Yankees to a 1-0 win over the Indians in Game 3 by working seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. Tanaka also twirled seven shutout frames in his last start of the regular season, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0. However, those excellent two outings don't tell the whole story. While Tanaka was 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA over 15 regular-season home starts, he is 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 (Yanks were 6-9). What's more, he is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston (Yanks are 1-3). In contrast, the Astros were 16-7 in Keuchel's regular season starts and here in Houston, he owns a 2.21 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts, including his Game 2 win in the ALDS. It sure doesn't hurt Keuchel's or Houston's confidence that he's also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA over six career starts against the Yankees in the regular season plus owns a wild card win over them in 2015 (5-2 & 1.24 ERA, overall).

The pick: Is it good news or bad new that the Yanks got past Cleveland while rookie sensation Aaron Judge went 1 of 20 in the ALDS, striking out an incredible 16 times? It's probably good news that of the nine Yankees to record double-digit at-bats in the ALDS, only four were in the lineup against Keuchel two postseasons ago, when he beat them 3-0 in a wild card game at Yankee Stadium (6 IP / 3 hits and a 7-0 KW ratio). The Yankees dropped to 41-43 on the road this season by losing two of three in Cleveland in the ALDS and with Tanaka's road woes this season (reminder, above), can hardly be trusted here against Keuchel (see above) and a Houston team which is now 50-33 at home on the season. Tanaka was out-dueled by Keuchel in that 2015 wild card game (Yanks are 1-4 in Tanaka's five all-time starts vs. the Astros) and don't expect a different result, here. Make the Astros a 10* play.