Rogers' Thursday ESPN THUNDER >> Won by Almost 40 pts Last Night!
(NCAAF) Tulsa vs. USF,
Point Spread: -22.00 | -110.00 USF (Home)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 2-8 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-5 in the AAC) will visit Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Thursday night to face the 8-1 South Florida Bulls (5-1 in the AAC). Tulsa's fallen a long way from last year's 10-3 team which destroyed Central Michigan 55-10 in the Miami Beach Bowl. Tulsa limps in having lost seven of its last eight and checks is 0-5 on the road in 2017. USF owned a nation-best 12-game winning streak and had scored 30-plus points in 24 staright games but lost at home 28-24 to Houston on Oct. 28. However, the good news is, USF still controls its own destiny (more later).

Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane rely on a rushing attack that averages 248.7 YPG to score 31.0 PPG (50th). However, that isn't quite enough when the team's D has allowed 38.0 PPG (12st) on 547.5 YPG (128th). All that said, let's give Tulsa some credit. Five of its last seven losses have been decided by 10 or less points, as Tulsa is just one of those teams that competes hard but just can't put together a complete 60 minutes.

South Florida: Senior QB Quinton Flowers registered a school-record 516 yards of total offense last time out against UConn and now needs just one rushing TD to become the sixth FBS player with 60 passing TDs and 40 rushing TDs in a career. Flowers threw for 385 yards while rushing for another 131 against UConn and needs 357 to pass Matt Grothe (10,875) for the school record in total offense. He's passed for 1,955 yards with 15 TDs and just 4 INTs on the season, while adding 751 RY (5.2 YPC) and 9 TDs. RBs Tice (780 YR / 9 TDDs) and Johnson (631 YR / 7 TDS) help make USF the 7th-best running team in the nation, averaging 276.7 YPG. The offense gets all the 'pub,' averaging 39.1 YPG (7th) but the defense has more than held its own, allowing 19.9 PPG (23rd) on 319.8 YPG (18th).

The pick: Tulsa comes in 8-3 ATS as a road dog since 2015 and USF does have a "Black Friday" showdown looming at UCF on Nov. 24th. Naturally, USF must beat UCF in that one and a win the following week in the AAC championship game would almost assuredly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl bid but first things first. USF has to "take care of business" here in its regular season home finale against Tulsa. Sure, it's a lot of points but despite that four-point home loss to Houston, USF has outscored opponents at home by 35.6-to-15.6 PPG. Note that Tulsa has allowed 46.6 PPG on the road. Lay it and make USF an 8* play.