PREMIUM
Rogers' *10* Friday Night FIGHT >> UNLV-New Mexico! 9-2 Run w/ 10*s!
(NCAAF) UNLV vs. New Mexico,
Point Spread: -2.00 | -115.00 New Mexico (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -2.00 | -115.00 New Mexico (Home)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The setting for this Friday night MWC contest will be University Stadium in Albuquerque, where the 3-7 New Mexico Lobos (1-5 in MWC play) will host the 4-6 UNLV Rebels (3-3 in league play). The Rebels still have an outside shot at earning bowl-eligibility but will need to win here and then at Nevada in their season-finale on Nov. 25th. As for New Mexico, the Lobos entered the 2017 season off back-to-back bowl appearances, including finishing 9-4 in 2016 after edging UTSA 23-20 in the New Mexico Bowl. Obviously, the team's record is a major disappointment. As for the Rebels, even an outside shot at a bowl berth is a "good sign, for a school that has made just one bowl appearance (2013) over the previous 16 years heading into the current season.
UNLV: The team's head coach is Tony Sanchez, of Bishop Gorman High School fame (Las Vegas). The transition from legendary HS head coach to UNLV has not gone smoothly, as the Rebels were 3-9 in his first season and 4-8 last year. The team averages 29.2 PPG (65th) led by a running game averaging 239.5 YPG (20th). RB Lexington Thomas leads the way, running for 1,146 yards (6.4 YPC) with 15 TDs. Senior QB Tony Stanton lost his job to freshman Armani Rogers but regained it when Rogers suffered a concussion. Rogers is cleared to play but Sanchez is sticking with Stanton, who threw for 325 yards and two TDs (also two INTs) in last week's 31-21 loss to BYU. UNLV's defense doesn't help much, allowing 32.3 PPG (103rd) on 461.1 YPG (116th).
New Mexico: Bob Davie's option attack has produced three seasons of 400-plus YPG rushing in five previous years at New Mexico (team averaged 370 & 388 in the two 'down' years!). However, while this year's team averages 226.3 YPG on the ground to rank 22nd in the nation, that's a significant drop-off from previous years. QBs Jordan and Tuioto have both struggled, completing around 50% with six TDs and nine INTs between them. New Mexico's D is better than UNLV's but not by much, allowing 30.9 PPG (ranks 93rd).
The pick: At this pointspread price, one must look at UNLV's straight-up road record, as "staying within a margin" doesn't really come into play. UNLV entered this season 8-51 SU on the road the last 10 years (2-10 under Sanchez) and the team's 2-2 road record in 2017 hardly builds confidence in a game the Rebels will almost have to win in order to cover. New Mexico was 11-4 at home the last two seasons and while the Lobos are just 2-3 SU at home in 2017, I'll back them in their final home game of what's been a very disappointing year. Make New Mexico a 10* play.
UNLV: The team's head coach is Tony Sanchez, of Bishop Gorman High School fame (Las Vegas). The transition from legendary HS head coach to UNLV has not gone smoothly, as the Rebels were 3-9 in his first season and 4-8 last year. The team averages 29.2 PPG (65th) led by a running game averaging 239.5 YPG (20th). RB Lexington Thomas leads the way, running for 1,146 yards (6.4 YPC) with 15 TDs. Senior QB Tony Stanton lost his job to freshman Armani Rogers but regained it when Rogers suffered a concussion. Rogers is cleared to play but Sanchez is sticking with Stanton, who threw for 325 yards and two TDs (also two INTs) in last week's 31-21 loss to BYU. UNLV's defense doesn't help much, allowing 32.3 PPG (103rd) on 461.1 YPG (116th).
New Mexico: Bob Davie's option attack has produced three seasons of 400-plus YPG rushing in five previous years at New Mexico (team averaged 370 & 388 in the two 'down' years!). However, while this year's team averages 226.3 YPG on the ground to rank 22nd in the nation, that's a significant drop-off from previous years. QBs Jordan and Tuioto have both struggled, completing around 50% with six TDs and nine INTs between them. New Mexico's D is better than UNLV's but not by much, allowing 30.9 PPG (ranks 93rd).
The pick: At this pointspread price, one must look at UNLV's straight-up road record, as "staying within a margin" doesn't really come into play. UNLV entered this season 8-51 SU on the road the last 10 years (2-10 under Sanchez) and the team's 2-2 road record in 2017 hardly builds confidence in a game the Rebels will almost have to win in order to cover. New Mexico was 11-4 at home the last two seasons and while the Lobos are just 2-3 SU at home in 2017, I'll back them in their final home game of what's been a very disappointing year. Make New Mexico a 10* play.
