The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference has three teams tied atop the standing at 6-1. Appalachian State is one of the three teams and will host ULL on Saturday, a team which 5-6 overall, including 4-3 in league play. However, the other two 6-1 teams meet at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Al. on Saturday, as Troy (9-2 / 6-1) visits Arkansas St. (7-3 / 6-1). Arkansas St. has won four in a row over Troy, including a 35-3 win at Troy last year as an eight-point underdog when Troy was ranked 25th in the AP poll.
Troy: The Trojans shocked LSU earlier this year, winning 24-21 at Baton Rogue on Sep 30th, as a three-TD underdog. However, Troy lost its next game. That said, the Trojans enter this contest on a five-game winning streak (all SBC games). QB Brandon Silvers has 2,739 passing yards with a modest total of 11 TDs (six INTs). Troy's offense is averaging 29.8 PPG (54th) but its defense is the key. Troy ranks 10th in points allowed (16.9 per) on 318.1 YPG (18th).
Arkansas State: QNB Justin Hansen is completing 63.9% for 3,198 yards with 32 TDs and 12 INTs, leading an offense which averages 39.9 PPG (9th). Hansen threw for 520 yards with four TDs in ASU's last game, a 67-50 win at UL-Monroe. Defensively, the Red Wolves are allowing 24.2 PPG (45th).

The pick: Troy has had an excellent season and have not allowed more than 24 points in any game this year (have given up 17 or fewer in four of its last five). The winner gets at least a share of the Sun Belt regular season title (would win outright if Appalachian State loses). Sure, Troy is playing with "quadruple-revenge" but after losing 35-3 at home LY to ASU, there is still a huge gap to make up. ASU has some pretty gaudy ATS numbers,as the Red Wolves are 14-5 ATS in its their last 19 games overall and 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 conference games. Want more? The Red Wolves are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Make Arkansas St a 9* play.