The set-up: The 42-17-3 Tampa Bay Lightning will host the 39-20-5 Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. Tampa Bay leads the Atlantic with points while Toronto is second, trailing the Lightning by four points in the standings with two more games played. The Maple Leafs have made it a three-team battle for the Atlantic Division title with an impressive run and can move closer to the top when they visit the first-place Lightning on Monday. Toronto made a bold step on Sunday by acquiring veteran center Tomas Plekanec from Montreal. The 35-year-old has spent 15 seasons with the Canadiens and has largely played a checking role, neutralizing opponents' top lines (he has a modest six goals and 18 assists this season).
 
Toronto: Plekanec, at least initially, will simply help offset the absence of center Auston Matthews (team-best 28 goals & 50 points, overall), who is headed to injured reserve and likely out for a week as he deals with a shoulder injury. Center Mitch Marner has taken the team's points lead with 51 on 16 goals and 35 assists (has 20 points in the last 17 games). LW James van Riemsdyk (25 goals) is riding a five-game point streak and has scored five goals in the last nine games. The Maple Leafs are 13-2-0 in their last 15 games and have won four in a row after edging Boston 4-3 on Saturday to move one point ahead of the Bruins and climb within four of the Lightning.
 
Tampa Bay: The Lightning had dropped three of four games before a three-game sweep on their road trip last week, getting four goals each in wins at Washington, Ottawa and Montreal. The last came in a shootout Saturday, with goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy making another spectacular behind-the-back save to clinch the win in shootout. The Lightning have the best record in hockey and they're entering a stretch with 10 of their next 11 games at home. Tampa Bay is 20-6-1 this season, among the NHL's best home records. All this despite some shakiness on the blue line. However, Andrei Vasilevskiy has provided outstanding goaltending (league-best 36 wins, .927 save percentage) and Tampa Bay owns several lethal offensive players. Nikita Kucherov leads the league with 82 points (33 goals) and has notched at least one in nine straight games plus centers Steven Stamkos (24 goals & 70 points) and Brayden Point (25 goals and 54 points) continue to impress. Point has scored in four consecutive contests (five goals overall) and recorded a point in seven in a row, while Norris Trophy candidate Victor Hedman (44 points) has collected seven points in his last six games and leads all NHL defensemen with a plus-27 rating.
The pick: The two teams have split two meetings in Toronto already this year and play again in Tampa on March 20. Tampa Bay is rumored to be involved in trade talks, with its focus on improving a defense that has allowed 39 goals in 12 games this month despite posting an 8-4-0 record. We'll see if the Lightning "pull the trigger." Won't (can't) buck the Lightning on home ice, where they average 3.67 GPG. Make Tampa Bay an 8* play.