The set-up: St. Louis Cardinals have outscored the Reds by a 24-8 margin in taking the first three of a four-game series in Cincinnati. The Cards have been able inch above .500 with this "mini-run," becoming just the latest team to take advantage of the struggling Reds, who own MLB's worst record (2-12) and will need to break a seven-game losing streak to avoid a four-game home sweep. Saturday's 6-1 win came behind seven strong innings from starter Miles Mikolas, with Greg Garcia producing two HRs and a double plus Tommy Pham going 3-for-4 with a walk for St. Louis, (1st time Cards have been above .500 in 2018). The loss gives Cincinnati its worse start since 1931, when the team lost 17 of its first 19 contests.

The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.41 ERA) will get the ball for the Cards and Homer Bailey (0-2, 3.24 ERA) gets teh nod for the Reds. Martinez has just one win after three starts but he's allowed only 14 hits and has 19 Ks through 18 2/3 innings. His problem has been allowing 10 walks, although the bulk of those came in a rocky season debut (4.1 IP / 4 hits / 6 walks / 4 ERs). Martinez is 6-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 19 career games (just eight starts) against Cincinnati,. Bailey has allowed only a run in six innings in two of his first three starts but his team is 0-3 in his outings. He struck out seven and yielded two hits in his six innings of work at Philadelphia on Tuesday, getting through a start without allowing a walk for the first time in 2018. However, Bailey has fared poorly in his career against the Cards, going 6-13 with a 5.86 ERA in 23 career starts.

The pick: The Cardinals have been perennial playoff contenders but hardly looked like ones in opening 5-7. The Reds have given them a chance to gain some momentum (and some confidence) and St. Louis has done just that. Martinez had a shaky 2018 debut (see above) but he's rebounded by allowing just one run in 14 1/3 innings over his last two outings. That bodes well for the Cards, as his counterpart (Bailey) has been awful in his career against St. Louis (again, see above). Absolutely nothing has gone right for the Reds, who have not just been outscored 24-8 in this series vs. the Cards but by a margin of 45-17 during the team's seven-game slide. The Reds are coming off three consecutive last-place seasons in which they've averaged 95 losses and they are currently 'ahead' of that pace in 2018. Cincy is off to its worst start in 87 years, or since the Reds were also 2-12 in 1931, when they lost 96 times during a 154-game season. Make St. Louis an 8* play.