The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates earned wild card bids in three consecutive years from 2013-2015, while averaging 93.3 wins per season.. However, the Pirates lost all three of those winner-take-all matchups. The 2016 (78 wins) and 2017 (75) seasons saw thew Pirates play sub-.500 baseball and 2018 began with few expectations for the franchise. However, the Pirates surprised most (all?) observers by opening with wins in 11 of their first 15 games. The team's fast start has 'hit a wall' as of late, as Pittsburgh's offense has been in a 'deep freeze.' Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six and the Pirates have manged to score a total of only five runs in the team's five losses. That includes them totaling just three runs in dropping the first three contests of their four-game series with the Phillies. The 13-7 Phillies improved to 8-1 at home with Saturday's 6-2 triumph, moving six games over .500 behind a thriving pitching staff (team ERA of 3.14 ranks 5th) and a young offense led by Rhys Hoskins (.328 / 4 HRs / 19 RBI). Hoskins homered and drove in four runs on Saturday.

The pitching matchup: The Pirates hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-1, 1.93 ERA), while the Phillies will try to polish off the sweep behind Nick Pivetta (1-0, 2.49 ERA). Williams has pitched very well, losing for the first time in 2018 his last time out. He only allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings against the Colorado Rockies but took the hard-luck 2-0 setback. The 25-year-old has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his four 2018 outings. Williams lost his only start against Philadelphia last season, surrendering three runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Pivetta is rolling along as well, allowing two or less runs in each of his last three starts. He has not factored in the decision in either of his last two starts, despite holding the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves to a total of three runs in 12 innings and owns 21 strikeouts with just two walks in 21 2/3 total innings on the season. Pivetta is making his first career start against the Phillies.

The pick: Pittsburgh's fast start seems to be quickly fading into the rear-view mirror, while the Phillies' first-year manager Gabe Kapler is riding good pitching and timely that is adding up to more confidence for his young team. Kapler is "working the numbers hard," trying to get playing time spread equally and the players are said to be feeling good about where they are at in 2018. No reason to buck the Philies here, as they are 8-1 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 6.56-to-2.11 RPG. Surely not with a Pittsburgh team which has scored just three times in losing the first three games of this series, while accumulating only 16 hits so far (.168 team BA!). Make Philadelphia a 10* play.