The set-up: The Bruins shocked the Lightning in Game 1 of their semifinal series, 6-2. However, Tampa Bay has won three straight since, putting Boston on the verge of elimination as the teams take the ice this Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena. Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos tied the contest in the third period of Game 4 and defenseman Dan Girardi tipped home the game-winner in overtime, as the Lightning rallied for a 4-3 victory Friday to give themselves a chance to finish their second series in five games. The Bruins have not recorded an even-strength goal since Game 2, after scoring twice with the man advantage and once short-handed during the rally that gave them a 3-2 lead in the third period Friday, before folding.

Boston: Not only is Boston down 3-1 in the series but defenseman Torey Krug, who has 12 points in 11 playoff games, suffered a left ankle injury after crashing into the boards feet first on Friday. He has been ruled out for the rest of the series, perhaps giving veteran blue liner Nick Holden a spot in the lineup. Left wing Brad Marchand had a pair of assists Friday and boasts eight points in the series (17 in the postseason), but has managed only seven shots on goal overall in the four games. Left wing Rick Nash, who has five goals and four assists in his last four playoff games at Tampa Bay, scored twice in Game 1 but has been held to one assist since.

Tampa Bay: The Lightning's top line is beginning to produce after a slow start to the series, as Nikita Kucherov scored on the power play and Stamkos had a goal for the second straight contest. "Our line has been talking a lot about wanting to have a better game," Stamkos said of his unit that includes J.T. Miller. "Obviously, it's not a matter of will. We knew eventually it was going to come." Defenseman Victor Hedman did not have a point in the first playoff series, but has recorded five assists in the last four games against Boston to become the franchise's postseason leader in that category (36).

The pick: Here's some really good news for Lightning fans. They return home for Game 5 on Sunday afternoon at Amalie Arena with history on their side, as no Lightning team has ever blown a 3-1 lead in the playoffs and the Bruins are 0-23 in series they trailed 3-1. What's more, Boston will have to stay alive without arguably their best defenseman in Torey Krug (see above). The Lightning's quick dismissal of New Jersey in the opening round gave them a full week of rest before this series and if they can dispatch the Bruins on Sunday, they can rest again, with all the other series going at least six games. It all sounds juts "too good" for me. "Desperate hockey," explained Boston center Patrice Bergeron of the mindset for Sunday. "You know we've shown character all year. You know I've spoken about the resilience in this room, so it's time to show it." Take the 1 1/2 goals and make Boston a 6* play.