The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but the losses, both on and off the field, are piling up. The Mets finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the Mets head out on the road at 17-15 to begin a six-game road trip beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets were outscored 34-11 during a disastrous 0-6 homestand and have now dropped 14 of their last 20 after a blistering 11-1 start to the season. More bad news is that Yoenis Cespedes left Sunday's 3-2 loss to Colorado due to soreness in his right quadriceps and told reporters he was unsure of his availability for the series opener in Cincinnati. Also, Jacob deGrom, who was expected to start Monday for New York, was placed on the 10-day disabled list to allowed more time to rest his hyperextended elbow. The good news for the Mets is that their opponent the next three games is the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26.

The pitching matchup: P.J. Conlon (NR) will make his major league debut for the Mets and go up against Homer Bailey (0-4, 4.81 ERA). Conlon was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to make his major league debut and he'll also go into the history books, becoming the first Irish-born player to reach the bigs since 1945. With deGrom expected to start next Sunday at Philadelphia, it figures to be a one-game audition for Conlon, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts this season at Las Vegas. He has allowed only one HR but opponents are batting .310 against him. Bailey owns two career no-hitters but is 66-67 in his career with a 4.43 ERA. He endured some hard-luck losses at the outset of the season after registering three quality starts in his first four outings but he has regressed over the past two weeks. After a pair of no-decisions, he was tagged for five runs on six hits over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Bailey, who has surrendered six HRs over his last three starts. Bailey is 0-4 and the Reds 0-7 in all of his 2018 starts minus-$700 vs. moneyline mark. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA lifetime versus New York.

The pick: At first blush, with these two starters, one could say "over" fairly easily. However, the Mets come off an 0-6 homestand being held to two runs or fewer five times, including three shutouts. As for the Reds, they average 3.91 RPG (24th) plus rank 25th in OPS (.684) and 28th in HRs (27). Make the Under a 10* play.