The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but they just recently finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York had opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the 17-1 began a six-game road trip last night, starting beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets had been outscored 34-11 during their disastrous 0-6 homestand and had dropped 14 of their last 20 after taht blistering 11-1 start to the season, opening the new week at 17-15. However, good news came New York's way in that its opponent from Monday-Wednesday was the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who were tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. As has been the case all too often for the Cincinnati Reds this season, Great American Ball Park has been cure for whatever was ailing the other team's offense prior to that series. New York scored in only six of the 54 innings it played during its 0-6 homestand, getting shut out three times. The Mets had totaled just 11 runs (over six games), seven of which came in one game. However, the Mets pushed across at least one run in each of the first five innings of their series-opening 7-6 victory on Monday. The Reds fell to 8-27, giving them MLB's worst record, as the 8-26 Orioles were idle on Monday. The Reds also fell to 4-15 at home, where they have allowed HRs (37) than any team in MLB, while allowing a National League-worst 5.74 runs per game in those 19 home contests.

The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Jason Vargas (0-2, 16.20 ERA) to the mound and teh Reds will counter with Luis Castillo (1-4, 7.01 ERA). Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and teh Mets had hoped he would eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut on April 28, giving up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. He was then tagged for six runs on 11 hits in last Thursday's 11-0 loss to Atlanta. Right-handed hitters are batting .500 with three HRs in 30 at-bats against Vargas, who last faced Cincinnati in 2006 (note: he is 1-0 with a 5.23 ERA in two career starts against the Reds). Castillo will make his second straight start at home, after five consecutive road ones. He is coming off a loss to Milwaukee on Wednesday but one in which he allowed just two runs on nine hits while striking out seven in six innings. The outing was an encouraging one, as he had mustered only one quality start over his first six appearances. Castillo is 1-6 with a 4.02 ERA in nine career starts at Great American Ball Park entering his first career matchup against the Mets.

The pick: Tonight's starting pitchers will own a combined 23.21 ERA when they take the mound tonight (over?) and it's true that the Mets are 19-3 in their last 22 meetings against the Reds, outscoring them 119-74. It's also true that Cincinnati's 8-27 mark through 35 games is the worst start in the majors since Detroit had the same record in 2003. However, I see nothing from Vargas that makes me want to back him. Meanwhile, Castillo is coming off a 3-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last Wednesday, his best effort in a disappointing-to-date season. Make Cincy a 10* play.