Rogers' RUN LINE PUNISHER >> Won RL Play Thursday!
(MLB) NY Mets vs. Philadelphia,
Point Spread: 1.50 | -160.00 NY Mets (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: The New York Mets opened 11-1 but open a three-game series in Philadelphia with the Phillies having lost 16 of their last 23 games, including eight of nine to fall to 18-17. Philadelphia lost four of five to open the season but have made a solid turnaround since then, as the Phillies are now 22-15 overall (that's a 21-11 run), after capping a four-game sweep of San Francisco with a 6-3 win on Thursday.
The pitching matchup: The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) to the mound and Philly counters with 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15 ERA). Matz suffered a disastrous seven-run outing on April 25 but rebounded with his first quality start of the season in Saturday's 2-0 loss to Colorado. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings. The 26-year-old had his start pushed back due to a stiff back and while allowed a first-inning HR (his 6th in 27 2/3 innings), he settled down. Matz pitched well in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, permitting two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 setback on Aug. 12. Arrieta missed Philadelphia's first series versus New York, as he worked himself into shape after signing a three-year, $75 million contract in March. He will be back on the mound Friday night for his seventh start in a Phillies uniform. He was part of a pitchers' duel in his last outing, facing Max Scherzer and the Washington Nationals (he allowed just one run on two hits and two walks last Sunday in six innings). Arrieta enjoyed a three-start winning streak before getting blitzed against Miami on April 30, but rebounded at Washington on Sunday. He has posted a 2-2 mark with a 2.30 ERA in seven career appearances versus the Mets.

The pick: The Phillies are 22-15 after sweeping the Giants and it took them until June 15 to win their 22nd game of the season in 2017. Throw in the team's 15-5 record at Citizens Bank Park and at first blush, Philly is the play vs. the slumping Mets. However, is it ever just "that simple?" I'm not a big fan of Arrieta (these days) and while Matz is having an up-and-down beginning to the 2018 season, he is coming off one of his best starts of the year (see above0. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make the Mets an 8* play.