The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have dug themselves into a deep hole in their Eastern Conference final series against the Washington Capitals by dropping the first two games of the series at home by a combined score of 10-4. As the Lightning visit the Verizon Center in D.C, they are well aware that a team has not rebounded from down 0-2 to win a conference final since Pittsburgh did so against Boston back in 1991. Washington knows all about losing the first two games of a series at home, as the Capitals did just that in the first round of the 2018 playoffs against Columbus, before winning four in a row to move on . The Caps then went on to take out the two-time defending champion Penguins in six games. After scoring the final five goals of Sunday's 6-2 triumph, the Caps are have now won 10 of their last 12 postseason games.

Tampa Bay: "I'm confident in our group," Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper told reporters Monday. "They've got 113 points (in the regular season) for a reason. … They've got a ton of experience, and when their backs have been against the wall, they've shown the propensity to fight back. This is a tough one. We lost two at home and it's definitely not an ideal situation. But we're not done. It's not over." The Lightning say they still have plenty of confidence in Vezina finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has allowed 10 goals in five periods of hockey during this series with little help from his defense after posting a .927 save percentage in the first two rounds. "We all have tremendous belief in him, and he's a rock for our team," Tampa Bay defenseman Anton Stralman told reporters. "He's going to be back and be his best. We're not making his job easier by executing our game plan defensively and offensively. The scoring chances are way up compared to the previous series and that's on us, not him." Captain Steven Stamkos has scored in four of his last five games while compiling seven points in that stretch.

Washington: The Capitals have scored seven of their 10 goals at even strength in this series while Tampa Bay, which dominated Boston when playing 5-on-5 in the semifinal series, has scored three of its four on the power play in the opening two contests. "It's huge, but it's not over yet," Washington captain Alex Ovechkin, who scored in each of the first two games, told reporters. "We're going to (have to) come back home and do our thing and take another one. It's going to be hard. They have tremendous players over there and we just have to play the same way and don't give them anything." Ovechkin shares the team lead with Kuznetsov at 19 points in the playoffs and is the second Washington player to reach 10 goals in a postseason run by joining John Druce (14 in 1990).
The pick: Road teams that have taken a 2-0 series lead in the NHL conference finals have an 18-1 series record. However, while the Caps are now 7-1 on the road this postseason, they are only a modest 3-3 at home. What's more, we all know that Washington owns a checkered playoff history and the Capitals are 0-2 in their playoff history when winning the first two games of a series on the road, including a loss to Tampa Bay in 2003. Looking for an omen? The last time the Lightning lost two straight home playoff games, in the 2015 conference final against the New York Rangers (Games 4 and 6), they won the series in seven games. I'm not convinced the Lightning can rebound and take the series but it's all but assured Tampa Bay can't win this series if it loses Game 3. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play.