3pk
(MLB) San Diego vs. Pittsburgh,
Total: 7.50 | 107.00 Over
Result: Win
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates improved to 15-6 at home following Thursday's 5-4 series-opening triumph over San Diego, notching their second straight one-run victory, giving themselves a 9-3 record in one-run games so far in 2018, including 6-0 at home.The 26-17 Pirates are a half-game up on the 26-18 Brewers in the NL Central and will continue their four-game series with the Padres tonight, looking for a ninth victory in their last 10 outings (Pirates are 5-1 two-thirds of the way through their nine-game homestand). As for the Padres, they are in last place in the NL West. However, there is some good news. After going 10-20 over March and April, San Diego is 7-8 so far in May.

The pitching matchup:Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and he will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01 ERA). Ross allowed only one run on three hits and two walks while fanning seven over six innings in a no-decision Saturday against St. Louis (Padres won 2-1). He enters this contest winless over his last five outings but while he's 0-2 in that span, the Padres are 3-2 in those contests. Ross has struck out 39 in 29 2/3 innings over his last five starts, while holding the opposition to one run three times over that span. Ross has five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, going 1-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Nova opened the season with five quality starts in six tries but hasn't been the same since an excellent eight-inning effort on April 26 (six hits / no runs,/ no walks / five Ks). He lost for the second time in three outings after getting roughed up for four runs across 5 2/3 innings by San Francisco on Sunday. He has now surrendered a total of 17 runs (14 earned) on 25 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings (that's a 9.95 ERA!). Nova is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against San Diego, including 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts last year.

The pick: Nova was the Pirates' Opening Day starter and the team looked to him to anchor the rotation this season. He's fallen a little short of that (to say teh least). However, I don't think Pittsburgh is ready to give up on him (I'm not) and he does own a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against San Diego. Meanwhile, San Diego's Tyson Ross is delivering a career comeback season. San Diego took a chance and signed him to a minor league deal in December after he struggled with Texas in 2017, coming off thoracic outlet surgery."This is the best I've been in recent memory," Ross said recently. "Giving (the team) a chance to win has been the most important thing." He's been a rock among the Padres starters. so far and he has logged at least six innings in all but one of his eight 2018 starts, to-date. Impressively, he has struck out 53 in 47 2/3 innings. Make the Under an 8* play.