The set-up: The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have played five times in 2018, with four of the five being decided by one run. Seattle opened a four-game home series with Detroit on Thursday, falling 3-2. However, the Mariners avenged that loss with a dramatic 5-4 victory last night. The Tigers jumped out to a four-run lead but the Mariners scored all five of their runs in an explosive seventh inning to improve to 10-7 in one-run contests this season. The Mariners now own 11 comeback victories on the season, tied for the third-most in the American League. The Tigers are 10-9 in one-run games and one of two teams who have played more such contests than Seattle, pulling into a tie with Tampa Bay for the most in the majors. The four-game set continues Saturday night with the Tigers sitting at 20-24 and the Mariners at 25-19. However, Detroit is just 1 1/2 games back in the AL Central, as no team in that division owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in the AL West, which features the defending world champion Astros, so Seattle sits three games back, despite its much better won-loss mark.

The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.23 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit, opposed by Seattle lefty James Paxton (2-1, 3.52 ERA). Fiers comes in on a modest two-start winning streak, after allowing just one run on a solo HR and three hits across five innings in throwing a season-high 92 pitches in Monday's 6-3 home win over the Indians. Fiers has not walked more than one batter in any of his seven starts and is averaging a career-low 15.1 pitches per inning. However, in five career starts against Seattle, Fiers owns a 6.00 ERA. Surprisingly, he has yet to lose to the Mariners, going 1-0 with four no-decisions. Paxton followed up his no-hitter at Toronto on May 8 with his fourth consecutive quality start in a no-decision at Detroit on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings (Mariners lost 5-4). Paxton reportedly dealt with food poisoning between starts but is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 28 innings in his last four outings, although Seattle is just 2-2 in those games. He is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts against the Tigers.

The pick: Paxton came into his own in 2017, as team ace "King Felix" dealt with injuries, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA. His 2018 season has already featured a no-hitter in Toronto on May 8, when he became the first Canadian to accomplish the feat in his native country. I've always liked Fiers and as noted above (see for a reminder), these teams have loved playing one-run games in 2018. Make the Under a 10* play.