The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have dug themselves into a deep hole in their Eastern Conference final series against the Washington Capitals by dropping the first two games of the series at home by a combined score of 10-4 (note: the Capitals had a 7-1 edge in even-strength goals in Games 1 and 2). Tampa Bay came to Washington well aware that a team has not rebounded from down 0-2 to win a conference final since Pittsburgh did so against Boston back in 1991 and in fact, road teams that had taken a 2-0 series lead in the NHL conference finals own an 18-1 series record, all-time. However, everyone knew Washington owned a checkered playoff history. In fact, the Capitals were 0-2 in their playoff history when winning the first two games of a series on the road, including a loss to Tampa Bay in 2003. Right on cue, Tampa Bay responded by winning two in Washington with a red-hot power play (team's power play is 6-for-14 in the series) and brilliant goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who stopped 72 of the 76 shots he faced the last two games.

Washington: "It's a missed opportunity," Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin told reporters about losing both home games. "It is what it is. Nothing we can do. We're not going to look back. We're just going to look forward. This group of guys has been in different situations all year and we fight through it." There was good news coming out of Game 4 for the Caps, as Nicklas Backstrom (hand) returned to the lineup after missing the previous four contests. He recorded four shots and won six of nine faceoffs with a minus-1 rating in 18:51 of ice time. Center Evgeny Kuznetsov scored Thursday for his seventh point of the series and has 21 in the postseason, tying Ovechkin's franchise record in one playoff season that was set in 2009. Defenseman John Carlson, who has 14 points in the playoffs, was a minus-3 on Thursday and center Lars Eller (five points in the series) has been called for five minor penalties in the last two contests - two leading to power-play goals. Ovechkin has 20 points this postseason in 16 games, after managing 20 combined in 25 contests over the past two years.

Tampa Bay: Vasilevskiy has allowed two goals or fewer in eight of 14 playoff games, including the last two and captain Steven Stamkos told reporters after Thursday's win: "Vasy was there to bail us out. That's why he's one of, if not the best, goalie in the world." Stamkos has scored with the man advantage in each of the last four games and passed Martin St. Louis for the franchise record with 11 power-play goals in the playoffs. Center Brayden Point recorded a goal and an assist in each of the last three games and owns 16 points in the postseason to tie Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov for the team lead - all of them scoring seven and setting up nine.

The pick: Tampa Bay tied for the NHL lead with 25 road wins in the regular season but it will need to win a home game to win this series. Home-ice advantage has been a disadvantage in this series, as teh road team has won each game. The Caps are now just 3-5 at home this postseason but enter Game 5 at 7-1 on the road. Overall in the 2018 playoffs, road teams are 40-34, on pace to challenge the NHL record for most postseason wins by a road team (47 in 2012). Does that mean I'm on the Caps? N-O, they are after all, the Caps! Tampa's Vasilevskiy is 'on fire' (see above), while the Caps' Holtby has stopped just 35 of 42 shors (.833) in back-to-back losses, after saving 52 of 56 (.923) in Washington's two wins. "It seems like in this series, the pressure shifts on the home team," said Lightning head coach Jon Cooper, whose team is 5-1 on the road in the playoffs against the New Jersey Devils, Boston Bruins and Capitals. "The big, glaring 0-4 is staring at you. Having said that, I'd rather have Game 5 at home. I believe we'll be a different team than we showed up in Games 1 and 2." I agree. Make Tampa Bay a 10* play.