The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers began their 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, outscoring them 14-4. The surge landed Milwaukee in first-place in the NL Central but the team landed with a thud in its series opener against the New York Mets last night, managing only five singles in a 5-0 loss. Milwaukee now looks to bounce back Friday as it continues the four-game set with Ryan Braun back in the lineup. The former MVP recorded one of those singles last night, in his first game following a stint on the disabled list due to a back ailment. Meanwhile, the Mets pounded out 13 hits as they began their eight-game road trip on a positive note. Brandon Nimmo fell a HR shy of the cycle, as he went 4-for-4 with a walk and scored twice. New York had lost two straight prior to Thursday, scoring one run in each defeat, and had dropped three of its previous four on the road. Milwaukee is headed in the right direction at 31-20 on the season, after a 9-9 start. As for New York, the Mets opened 11-1 but last night's win leaves them a more modest 25-21.

The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98 ERA). Syndergaard got a win in his season debut but allowed four runs. However, he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last nine starts. He is a modest 3-1 in those nine starts but the Mets are 6-3. It may be notable that he hasn't started on the road since April 26 in St. Louis (we'll see). Syndergaard has been dominant against Milwaukee in his career, going 2-0 with a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three starts (Mets are 3-0). Guerra appears to have overcome a pair of rough starts to start the month, allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings while going 1-0 in his last two outings (2.53 ERA). However, Guerra has struggled at home, surrendering nine runs over 10 innings in back-to-back losses, after giving up one unearned run across 10 2/3 innings in his first two outings of 2018 at Miller Park. Guerra has permitted one run over 12 2/3 innings while going 1-0 in two career starts against New York (Brewers are 1-1).

The pick: Despite Milwaukee's .608 win percentage (highest in the NL) and its three-game lead in the NL Central, the Brewers have been shut out a major league-high nine times this season. That hardly bodes well against Syndergaard, who owns a 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a 68-13 KW ratio. That's not mention his 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. Guerra is no Syndergaard but he's a solid part of a Milwaukee rotation which owns' MLB's second-best ERA (3.37). What's more, Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is a ML-best 2.46! Make the Under a 10* play.