The probable starters for this one are both solid pitchers. Ryan for the Twins is coming off a complete game shutout, even though his two outings before that were pretty bad. He averages 6 IP/start this season, so against a hard hitting Braves lineup it should be 6 or less. If that’s the case his bullpen has not been great the last 10.

On the mound for the Braves, probable starter Elder has been even more solid than Ryan. He pitched 7 shutout innings his last outing and gave up only 1 earned run in the start before that. His bullpen has been much stronger the last 10 games so when he gets pulled he will have that support.

In their last 15 days of baseball the Braves lead the majors in avg. and OPS while the Twins are 22nd in both statistics over the same period. The Twins batters also have the 2nd worst strikeout rate in the majors. On top of that the Braves have average 8.66 R/9 vs. RHP this season while the Twins have averaged 4.01 R/9 against righties. In their last 7 the Braves have averaged 8.1 runs/game while the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs/game. Those two sets of stats alone easily make the spread. It seems pretty clear to pick the Braves to cover the spread.