The set-up: I like the Mariners to bounce back here after yesterday's 7-1 defeat. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side hands the ball to flame-thrower James Paxton.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.25 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off three hits over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Monday. Amazingly Freeland has a better record at Coors (2.89 ERA and .215 BAA) than on the road (3.50 and .247 marks.) Note that he's also a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in all "day" games as well.

Paxton is so far 8-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Royals on Sunday, going eight scoreless and allowing two hits and two walks while striking out 11. Paxton is back on track after this gem and note that he has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he's 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA at home.

The pick: Freeland has struggled in "day" games and his peripherals suggest that he's been performing over his head as well. He's also been at this worst on the road this season. Paxton on the other hand has dominated at home this year and there's no reason not to think that he won't be able to carry that momentum over here. Play on Seattle.