The set-up: Ultimately I believe that the visitors could in fact be a lot bigger favorites in this particular matchup. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Dan Straily.

The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and three walks over six innings while striking out six in a victory over the Braves on Friday. Since being called up in mid-June he's made four starts and over that stretch he's had three quality efforts. Note that he has a very respectable 28:7 K/BB over 24 frames of work.

Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.55 ERA. Straily most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Friday. Straily's win/loss record is not indicative of how he's thrown this year, but I'll point out that he's still owns a poor 5.52 ERA in all "home" games.

The pick: Miami has struggled with offensive production and that doesn't bode well facing the red hot Peralta. This is one which favors the hard-hitting visiting side and I look for it to take full advantage. Lay the price.