The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I'm therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki.

The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I'll point out that he's still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a "nail-biter" and grab the 1.5 runs.