The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Matt Harvey, while the home side goes with the steady Trevor Williams.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 6-7 with a 4.97 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over four innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Note that Harvey is a poor 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA on the road.

Williams is so far 11-9 with a 3.30 ERA. He's been a revelation for the Pirates this season and he's been particularly potent of late. Note that Williams owns a very respectable 2.91 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 9-3 in its last 12 National League home day games in which it's a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I think Williams comes in focused and out-duels Harvey. Play on Pittsburgh.