The set-up: It's a cross-division battle between SEC teams on Saturday afternoon. No. 5 LSU is at The Swamp to take on No. 22 Florida and while I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I expect this to be a complete "nail biter!"

The teams: LSU is poised for a letdown here finally in my estimation after the perfect 5-0 start. Last week it smashed Mississippi 45-16 with QB Joe Burrow posting 388 yards of offense to go along with four TD's. Will the Tigers get caught looking ahead here as well? With upcoming games against No. 2 Georgia next week and Mississippi State on October 20th before its showdown in Baton Rouge on Nov. 3rd, it's not out of the realm of possibility, that's for sure. Note that Burrow is still just 53.4 percent for the season with his passing.

Florida is 4-1 and it managed a 13-6 win over then No. 23 Mississippi State last Saturday. The Gators defense was outstanding and I expect the unit to be a difference maker here as well. Last week it held Mississippi State to just 202 total yards of offense. Franks didn't throw a TD for the first time this year, but he still went 22 of 31 for 219 yards. He has 12 TD's and three INT's on the year.

The pick: LSU has already beaten a pair of AP Top 10 opponents in Miami and Auburn, but earning a second road win of the season over a ranked opponent for the first time since 2011 is a tall order in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 2-3 ATS in its last five when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a win over a conference rival. Grab the points.