Writeup: The set-up: Kent State comes in off a 35-28 road over Bowling Green, while Buffalo hammered Miami Ohio 52-41 in its latest action. Last year the Bulls posted the 27-13 road victory at Kent State. On paper, clearly the Bulls have the advantage (the Golden Flashes average 24.3 PPG and allow 34.2, while Buffalo is averaging 34.9 PPG, while allowing 23.4.

The pick: But winning leads to complacency and I do indeed think the Bulls get caught "looking past" their opponent today. Note that Kent State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 11 to 23 points range. Grab the points.