Play: The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I'm not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they'll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a "letdown" spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC.

The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It's a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.