The set-up: Wisconsin enters off a 31-17 win over Rutgers, while Penn State comes in dejected after a humbling 42-7 road loss at No. 5 Michigan last Saturday. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I'm banking on a much tighter battle than what this spread would indicate. Wisconsin is averaging 31 PPG and it's allowing 20.9. QB Alex Hornibrook has 1,343 yards with an 11/8 TD:INT. Penn State is averaging 37.2 PPG and it's allowing 24.4. QB Trace McSorely has 1,711 passing yards and a 12/5 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is just 2-13-2 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game, while Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.