The set-up: The Falcons opened 1-4, but they've since clawed their way back to a 4-4 record with four straight wins. Last week ATL won 36-14 in Washington. Matt Ryan and company have been playing at an extremely high level for weeks now and winning on the road is never easy. This does indeed set up as a letdown spot for the Falcons finally. Thankfully the ATL defense faces a Browns offense averaging only 20.7 PPG. Cleveland's been decent defensively this season and that the last thing the home side can do is to turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hand with the high-flying Falcons.

The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last ten home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to seven points range. This number is a little high, play the "under."