The set-up: WMU lost starting QB Jon Wassink three games ago and the Broncos have lost three straight. Both teams are already bowl eligible. NIU had won six straight before a tough 13-7 home loss to Miami Ohio last weekend. The Huskies were already eligible and they ran into a buzz saw in the Redhawks, who still need one more win to qualify, but who were fighting for their lives in that one and on a win streak of their own. The Huskies are averaging only 19.8 PPG, but they're allowing just 20.3. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG and they're allowing 34.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout.