The set-up: The Devils are out to atone for a 4-3 OT loss to the Islanders. Tampa enters off a 5-2 home win over Chicago. The Devils are 7-4 at home, but just 2-8 on the road. NJ is averaging 3.00 GPG and it's allowing 3.19. The Lightning are averaging 3.74 GPG and they're allowing only 2.87. I expect the visitors to try and control the pace of this one from the start and because of that, I do definitely feel this one sets up as more of lower-scoring defensive battle.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NJ has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last nine road games after allowing four or more goals in an OT loss in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total go "under" in five of its last seven after a win by three or more goals in its previous outing. This number is a little high, play the "under."