The set-up: Its the inaugural Sun Belt Conference title game and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl is at stake. Am I call for an outright upset? I am not. However, I do think the Ragin Cajuns can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Louisiana Lafayette won its final three games to earn its spot here, while App State defeated Troy State to advance. Lafayette averages 33.7 PPG. Clearly it's not going to be a cake walk as the Mountaineers have won four straight since a 34-14 setback to Georgia Southern. App State gets the job done with a strong run, averaging 242.5 YPG, while racking up 27 TDs.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UL Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a record above the .500 mark. Both will be looking to establish the run. This one is going to be much tighter than what Las Vegas wants us to think. grab the points.

10* play