The set-up: This game means more to Atlanta. The Falcons are 4-7 and they'll need to run the table for a chance at a Wild card spot. The Ravens need wins as well, but at 6-5 it's a little less urgent. Baltimore comes in off a 34-17 home win over Oakland on Sunday, but QB Lamar Jackson looked pretty pedestrian by going 14 of 25 for 178 yards and two first half INT's. The Ravens have the best defense in the league as far as yards conceded, but Falcons' QB Matt Ryan won't be going down without a fight today. He has 3,683 passing yards with 24 TD's and only five INT's.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five on the road, while ATL is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss. Home cooking is the difference here, play on the Falcons.