The set-up: From a situational and also from a trend based stand point, I think this one sets up great as more of a defensive contest. Utah's won two straight on the road, including a 119-111 road win at Charlotte on Friday. The Jazz average 105.9 PPG and they allow 108.2. The Heat average 108.5 PPG and they allow 110 PPG. Two hot teams collide and I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah has seen the total go "under" the number in 14 of its last 23 off an upset win as an underdog, while Miami has seen the total go "under" in nine of its last ten off an upset win as a home underdog. This number is high, play the "under."